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Scenarios for travel in the near future

aap519 said:
There has to be some reason why some people are asymptomatic and other get real sick. There has to be some commonality.
Click to expand...

As much as I'm hoping that there might be some unprecedented world-wide effort to find solutions to this virus, I'm afraid that even this will not be easy or even feasible in the near future. Even most infected people with the common flu are asymptomatic, and I'm not aware of any single factor that has been discovered that is associated with being less susceptible to the flu. There could be anything from genetic to environmental or dietary explanations for this - but nothing certain has been discovered. This can pretty much be said for most diseases and illnesses - some will get them, some won't, and we usually don't know why.
Even after a possible discovery of specific factors influencing susceptibility to any illness, it's still a long haul to create treatments based on these discoveries.

I think that what Fedina said is very apt for the near future - there are so many things that can give us pleasure, we have to concentrate on those, and unfortunately put aside the ones that have become unattainable for a while. A year of learning a different and new perspective on our desires has its worth, too.
 
We are still hoping to take our prize trip to Tuscany in September. Just praying that we will be allowed into Italy. We are both pretty healthy ( no underlying health conditions) and continue to exercise by doing yard work and walking in our neighborhood.. But we haven't reserved our plane tickets yet.
 
Thanks for this thoughtful thread Joe. I think the scary thing about Covid19 is:
  • It’s very contagious & easily transmittable
  • It affects people differently. Some are asymptomatic and can be spreading it to others unwittingly. So you could be seated next to someone with Covid19 on the plane/train and not even know it. Also, it affects people differently. Seniors and folks with health challenges are more susceptible. I’m 60 and a person with Asthma so I'm very careful when I have to go out to get groceries. Lastly, some people have severe symptoms while others have milder ones with some who can get critically sick in a short period of time. How would it hit me? I frankly don’t want to find out.
  • Quarantine time is 14+ days (which is a long time).
  • Droplets left by those infected on objects can be contagious and the virus can be transmitted with contact.
Other things that IMHO affects my travel decision: the overrun health care systems, limitations of what Travel Insurance may or may not cover, uncertain affects on Transportation (ie., airlines, trains, airports) and closures, uncertain Government Travel restrictions and the lack of return to normalcy as we remember them to be from our past travel experiences.

I think until we have a viable and tested vaccine, there will be a level of uncertainty and risk to travel because of the nature of this virus and how easily it is transmitted. Sadly, I’ve had to postpone my trip to Europe which was scheduled for later this month.

I think everyone have different situations and comfort levels and will have to make future travel decisions that is best for them. I’m not optimistic about travel in the very near future (ie., Spring or Summer), but I am trying to be hopeful for early 2021 Spring.

If necessary I may have to adapt my travel itinerary and destinations, but I am not a fan of traveling if it means I have to wear a mask every time or if closures will negatively affect my travel experiences. I’m hoping a vaccine will be available soon. I won't have a problem taking the vaccine (once it has been successfully tested).

For now, I’m adhering to the guidelines to Stay at Home and using the time to be an armchair traveler with surprisingly more determination to travel once it is safe to do so. If there’s one thing I am taking from this, it is that our health, family and friends (including this wonderful travel community here on Slow Europe) are so important and also that the future can be unpredictable so when I have the opportunity to do the things I love, I should try to do them.

Wishing everyone and your families good health during this difficult time.
 
So went to rebook my May flight to Rome for the fall on Alitalia and was surprised and a bit impressed that, in addition to requiring passengers to bring their own masks, they also arranged for a sort of ‘social distancing’ requirement on the seat selection chart. I know if I get to Italy in September, social distancing with or without masks will be in place, as well as very possibly self quarantine requirements for those deplaning from the US, but now I see one way that airlines might be expected to attempt at least a gesture to honor the restrictions. Obviously, like the old no smoking areas on planes of days gone by, any such boundary is probably more illusory than effective, but kinda nice to see anyway.
 
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Dave123 said:
I'm not a fan of (anti-)social media, but there's a source of informed sanity here: https://twitter.com/ProfKarolSikora - see also his short article 'How to find a safe way out of the coronavirus lockdown' (The Spectator)
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Interesting thread of his about coming out of lockdown here on May 4 which is less than a month away. Here is a link to the thread.

I know we have to self isolate to keep the number of people getting the virus down but it seems so strange to have so many healthy people almost locked into their houses.
 
I've read stories of people who change their clothes in the garage after returning from the grocery store. I would think keeping a safe distance would keep a virus off a person. Can't hurt to be extra cautious.

Our governor now recommends wearing a face mask if we go outside. That should help prevent the spreading of infected droplets. I hope we don't send people back to work to soon. I would hate to see a 2nd wave.

https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/loc...-outside-during-coronavirus-pandemic/2249965/
 
There are Israeli scientists working on a possible and simple early warning method to detect infection by the virus, by testing one's sense of smell. This is based on preliminary and anecdotal findings that many people sick with the virus temporarily lose their sense of smell and taste.
They have put up a website that anyone can use to track and keep a record of their sense of smell, in order to try and detect as early as possible if there is a deterioration in this, and therefore an early sign of possible infection. You can test yourself on any type of time routine you choose, in accordance with how you feel about your health.
You have to provide some minimal personal info, but supposedly everything is kept anonymous.
There are other labs in the world co-operating with this, the list is on the site. The site is also offered in a number of languages.
As restrictions are gradually lessened, everyone will have to safeguard their health as much as possible, and this could be an easy way to be aware.
smelltracker.org

Smelltracker - track your sense of smell

smelltracker.org smelltracker.org

Other references :

www.entnet.org

COVID-19 Anosmia Reporting Tool: Initial Findings - American Academy of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery (AAO-HNS)

The first data from the AAO-HNS COVID-19 Anosmia Reporting Tool was analyzed and reported in the following article, which has been accepted for publication in Otolaryngology–Head and Neck Surgery. Now Published Online! [Short Scientific Communication] COVID-19 Anosmia Reporting Tool: Initial...
www.entnet.org www.entnet.org
 
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....And an article from The Guardian describing how the plight of airlines could be an opportunity for governments to get a stake in the aviation industry, and thus have more influence on how to better adapt aviation policies to goals in the best interests of a country.
Wishful thinking, perhaps, but let's hope that some leader will find it doable.
"With a stake in the airlines, the government could directly oversee a policy of reducing air travel, which would be part of a wider low-carbon transport strategy. Applying pricing tools such as a frequent flyer penalty, carbon emissions-based tax or airport user surcharge would discourage air travel. At the same time, government should invest in alternatives such as rail and bus services – including sleeper trains and coaches for long-distance travel and also telecommunications infrastructure to enable widespread working away from the office."
 
'Worldometers' is a useful source of Covid-19 data for various countries:

www.worldometers.info

Coronavirus Update (Live): 122,869,689 Cases and 2,712,629 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...
www.worldometers.info www.worldometers.info

NB The data may not be directly comparable country-to-country, but the *trends* of 'Daily New Cases' and 'Daily New Deaths' indicate where countries sit in respect of their own Covid-19 cycle, e.g., whether or not a genuine peak has been reached.
 
The restrictions on travel will be eased at some point, but I don't think it will be easy to find a consensus about when that point will be reached. The pandemic is at different stages in different places, which can only add further complications.
 
Someone said Oye Vey and I agree! There is EVERY opinion and scenario x 100 going around for people to latch onto. And of course, it is all a mystery until revealed. I suppose the best we can do is find our own comfort zone and use the best skills we've found for each of us that keep our stress levels down. That's the real killer and what weakens our immune systems. (Another story for another time, yes?!) I was happy to hear Fedina say that her husband recovered from "the beast" which is in essence just a tiny bug. But humans tend to mythologize so many things. Storytelling is one of our best traits! (Someone will probably reply that this virus is not a myth; I know, I get it, just making a point).

It's sad to hear some of us become so disheartened and distraught about travel, vaccines, rearranging lives. Balance is something we all struggle with and most often seem to find creative ways with which to deal with it. Take a moment to see how we've been doing just that of late.

In contrast there are those of us who can imagine things in a different light. Yes, Italy is all about socializing, hugging, being close, etc., but the world is going to rearrange itself after this. Humans are amazingly adaptable if you just look historically at other times and situations. We will not be the same and to me that proffers something interesting to look forward to and because I'm an optimist, something good. We are already experiencing a cleaning of the atmosphere. Maybe less travel will benefit us all in that way. And maybe a reset is what was called for. There are so many ways we can do better; what an opportunity! (Yes, I can hear some of you grousing that humans aren't capable of such but you'll never convince me!...hahaha)

I'm sure there are those who will stop traveling, be less active in some ways. Italy is my second home. I have dear friends there as I do in the British Isles, so I plan to watch and wait, bide my time. I won't make predictions because there are too many out there already. I will, however, make plans to go to Europe as soon as that feels safe for me.

I am sheltering on my own, just started week 4 and I hope that those of you have family or spouses with you appreciate your situation. I'm not suffering but I certainly miss hugging my family and friends!!!. I wish all of us good health and well-being.
Cheryl
www.italianexcursion.com
 
American Airlines rescheduled my flight from Charlotte to Paris from October 18 until October 25--which would be the end of my stay there, as I was to then go to Bologna, Italy. The Bologna part (with a group of friends) had already been postponed until October 2021.

American is processing my refund. So, my trip is cancelled. They didn't try to get me to rebook onto a different route (only through New York). The AirBnb host gave me a full refund for my Paris apartment.

I heard, I think a Johnson & Johnson executive, say that they hope to have a vaccine in the first quarter of 2021. Other companies are also working on a vaccine. May they all succeed!

I'm already booked for a trip to France in May 2021; then the Bologna postponed until October 2021.

I'm hopeful that there will be a vaccine available. I get both the flu and pneumonia vaccines each year.

I've had pneumonia twice -- both after transatlantic flights home from Europe-- my lungs are damaged by it, per the CT scan after my first one. I've not had another CT scan since the 2nd pneumonia. I can't see, with my lung situation, flying without a vaccine.

I've not entered at store since March 13. I walk outside, because I'm in an area with trails, not a high-density city. I have a single-family home, so I don't have to deal with other residents. I see my son and grandkids on social-distancing walks only, no indoor visits.

I'm not freaking out, but I think there's a long road back from this pandemic, so I've accepted that all I can control are my own actions.

I feel fortunate to have traveled to Europe every year since 1997, and to many other countries, prior to that.

Hang in there!
 
I was going with @Cameron to Bologna in October and feel hopeful that postponing until Oct. 2021 will work out! I've another trip planned to France mid May 2021. I'm not so sure about that trip happening but am hopeful! What I miss the most is the planning. Just yesterday I put my Bologna 2020 folder away. :(
I'd get a vaccine too but don't count on me to be first in line, LOL.

Stay strong....
 
Cameron,
Similar to you, we have been self-isolating since March 16th and distanced from our grandchild who lives down the street. He'll be one year old in May and we really miss holding him. Like you we are hoping for a reliable vaccine next year. In the meantime, we are walking along the creek behind our house each day and combing through the thousands of photos we've taken in our travels over the years. We are missing our friends (and friends we have yet to meet) in Europe, but are confident we will return in the not to distant future.

Stay safe, everyone. It will get better.
 
I keep thinking about all this, as many people must be. I think I would travel if it meant wearing a mask but would choose my destination carefully until next year when, hopefully, the worst will be over. When the UK comes out of lockdown we may have to wear masks.

We still have hopes for our Switzerland trip. We can drive there in 2 days (one night in hotel - or sleep in the car!). It is a small town that we go to (Lenk). Social distancing would be easy on the hikes (not very crowded). The gondola holds up to 4 people but usually only 2 at a time use them in summer. The only challenge would be the mountain buses, but we would either not use them or the Swiss will have figured that out. We usually only have one dinner out in the 3 weeks we stay there - so that will be easy to skip. It all depends if we can drive across France and if Switzerland will be open to tourists.
 
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